Omnichannel Attribution Modeling & Optimization

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Omnichannel Attribution Modeling & Optimization

Our approach to Omnichannel Attribution Modeling & Optimization (Omnichannel Optimization) combines the best of both marketing mix modeling & optimization (MMMO) and multi-trait attribution (MTA) into one integrated, comprehensive, and powerful omnichannel decision-making platform.  Omnichannel Optimization drives our clients understanding of the impact, sales contributions, and ROI across all media (traditional mass, digital, social, mobile, direct, emerging, etc.), all within one framework, with intelligence accessible in one place.  With our cascade, machine learning methodology, all performance marketing, optimization, and planning capabilities are available at a client’s portfolio (i.e., footprint) level, all 210 Nielsen US DMA’s, and an unlimited number of stores or locations.

We do, in fact, go much further than media, incorporating many non-media drivers such as brand, sponsorships, pricing, promotion, inventory, product management / introduction / lifecycle, CRM, macroeconomic leading indicators, employee engagement, competition, and other factors crucial to maximizing and forecasting future marketplace performance.  In every engagement, we model as much of the client’s marketplace reality as possible.  In the end, this provides our clients with the most powerful and actionable intelligence possible.

Powered by Marketing Mix Manager® (, our cutting-edge tools and capabilities are enabling our Fortune 500 clients to measure, optimize, and plan their marketing activities. With insight into the performance of all media and other important factors, including heretofore elusive activities such as brand campaigns, sports sponsorship, and promotions, our clients have a clear understanding of how to adjust to short term impacts on revenue, budgets, conversions, etc., and to develop plans to ensure future performance.


Quantify Performance

  • Measure marketing’s contribution to sales and revenue
  • Quantify ROI by media channel, promotion, market, etc.
  • Quantify individual media elasticity
  • Quantify media synergies

Optimization Your Media Mix

  • Allocate budgets across media channels based on critical mass thresholds and economic optimums
  • Adjust flighting to maximize synergies and align your media mix with demand
  • Determine budgets necessary to reach targets
  • Minimize losses when faced with budget cuts

Forecast and Plan Future Performance

  • Accurately forecast future performance with an evergreen, continuously improving platform
  • Explore budget or target options with our online, scenario-based planning tool


The Transfer Function Model


Our omnichannel solutions are customized for each client based on their business and marketing environment and incorporate a variation of approaches depending on the nature of the challenge. Many of our platforms are transfer-function (multivariate ARIMA) based, while others may be pooled time series (combining markets over time for instance). Regardless of the approach, the ability to incorporate temporal change into the omnichannel platforms is critical to the performance of the solutions. Overall, our approach links your marketing mix to your desired outcomes (sales, revenue, etc.) while controlling for issues such as seasonality, competition, pricing, etc., resulting in media / tactic-specific elasticities (i.e., sales / revenue impacts) and quantified cross-media synergies (e.g., lift generated by Radio / TV / Print running simultaneously, etc.).

Omnichannel Attribution Cascade Modeling

The key to our ability in delivering robust omnichannel attribution modeling solutions is our cascade modeling approach.  Leveraging machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, we have automated the cascade of models from the Portfolio to All Nielsen DMA’s and to an unlimited number of stores or locations within each DMA (see illustration below).This enables us to deliver extremely reliable results, that break down and sums up across a company’s entire footprint with a value proposition (quality / cost) that is virtually unparalleled.

Advantages of working with Polaris Research in developing your omnichannel program include:

1. One equation drives and optimizes business results

  • We use information from one equation to determine media effectiveness, quantify media / tactic contribution, calculate ROI, optimize the marketing mix, and forecast. All roll-ups & breakdowns balance.
  • Many vendors use different equations / approaches for forecasting, ROI decomposition, market roll-downs, etc. As a consequence, results don’t balance add up well.

2. Flexibility

  • We can focus on geographies, brands, categories, channels, products, or any combination of these views based on the client’s needs.

3. Timely and relevant information

  • Our evergreen platform factors in real-time, fact-based decisions and market changes. As market conditions change, our platform adapts and integrates the impact of these changes into the ROI results reporting and forecasting.
  • Historically, depending on the needs of the client, we have provided ROI reporting and forecasting on a weekly, monthly, bi-monthly, or quarterly basis.

4. Years of media experience but with media neutrality

  • Our senior leaders have a combined 25+ years of internal experience with major media agencies in media planning and research. We know how media work, but Polaris Research is a media-neutral, market research firm.

5. System Architect on the account team

  • The client has direct access to and dialog with the architect of our system.
  • With most vendors, clients are “distanced” or “separated” from the architects of the system by layers of account personnel with varying levels of understanding of the approach and capabilities.

Call us today to find out how Polaris Research can maximize the performance of your marketing investments by applying advanced econometric modeling tools to measure, optimize, and forecast your marketing performance.

List of Services

Econometric Modeling

  • Omnichannel Attribution Modeling & Optimization
  • Volumetric & Demand Forecasting
  • Brand Equity Metrics & Optimization
  • Linkage to Internal Service Quality Levels
  • Retention Forecasting & Optimization

Market Research

  • Customer Survey Development, Fielding, Analysis & Reporting
  • Syndicated Research Forecasts
  • Syndicated Research Mapping to Client Databases
  • Feasibility Studies

Discrete Choice Models & Segmentation

  • Buyer, Clone & Response Models
  • Customer Churn Models
  • Customer Upsell & Migration Models
  • Customer Lifetime Value & Optimization Models
  • Multi-Dimensional Customer & Messaging Segmentation
  • Multi-Phase / Product Communication Stream Management Models

Measurement, Tracking & Reporting

  • Experimental Test Design
  • Pre-Promotion Forecasts
  • Post-Promotion Sales & ROI Reporting
  • Productionalized Reporting